Build First, QB Later
From the moment the Las Vegas Raiders locked up the number one pick in this year’s draft, it has been widely believed that the first selection of the Klint Kubiak era would be Fernando Mendoza of the national champion Indiana Hoosiers. There was a moment when there was a whisper of a Dante Moore vs. Fernando Mendoza debate, but that was squashed when Moore decided to return to Oregon. And so, the quarterback-needy Raiders own the first pick in a draft that has only one obvious first-round QB to offer. It seems like a stroke of luck for the historically unlucky Raiders—but the consensus choice may not be the move best suited for a successful rebuild.
If the Raiders do indeed select Mendoza with the number one pick, he will be the 13th QB taken in that spot in the last 15 drafts. Of those 15, only three have reached a Super Bowl with the team that selected them. The last four taken (Ward, Williams, Young, and Lawrence) all had their coaches fired within a year of drafting them. I’m not saying that Mendoza has no chance of single-handedly turning around the Raiders, but it would seem to me that the success of a young quarterback is largely based on three factors besides talent.
First and most importantly, does he have a coach who is willing and capable of developing him? Yes. Klint Kubiak just took the Seahawks offense from 18th in scoring to 3rd and set a franchise record for total points in a season with 483. They nailed it.
Second, do they have the offensive line to protect him while he develops and keep him from forming bad habits under constant pressure? See C.J. Stroud. Despite landing a top lineman in free agency, I would still say that this offensive line is nowhere near good enough to protect Mendoza. During the 2025 NFL season, Geno Smith was under intense pressure, facing a total of 194 pressures in his 15 starts and being sacked 55 times. Besides Linderbaum, the Raiders are set to return both starting tackles and guards. While some hopeful Raiders fans blame Pete Carroll’s decision to make his son the offensive line coach for the disaster up front, the Raiders’ O-line was struggling long before Carroll and company came to town.
Third, can you surround Mendoza with weapons he can trust to consistently win? Unfortunately, the answer is also no. Brock Bowers had a monster rookie year and is the best receiving weapon on the roster by a mile. Ashton Jeanty was wildly inefficient in his rookie year on the ground, largely due to the aforementioned offensive line issues, and has never been considered a threat as a receiver. The Raiders fall woefully short in two of the three categories, immediately presenting massive hurdles for Mendoza—a prospect who is not considered generational, but somewhat elevated due to the lack of quarterback talent in this year’s rookie class.
Without Raider Nation showing up on my doorstep, I’d like to make the case for trading the pick and building a roster that would give a young QB a fighting chance. Not long ago, the Chicago Bears were faced with a very similar decision: take Bryce Young and end the carousel of quarterbacks, or capitalize on another team’s desperation? They chose the latter, and it kick-started one of the most exciting rebuilds in the NFL today.
In exchange for the pick that ended up being Bryce Young, the Bears received:
DJ Moore, wide receiver
2023 Round 1 (10): Darnell Wright, offensive tackle
2023 Round 2 (56): Tyrique Stevenson, cornerback
2024 Round 1 (1): Caleb Williams, quarterback
2025 Round 2 (39): Luther Burden, wide receiver
DJ Moore has been fantastic despite the tumultuous QB situation in Chicago and eventually being buried in a crowded wide receiver room. Darnell Wright has been an excellent run blocker and one of the top tackles in the league. Stevenson has been up and down but has flashed major upside and, with the departure of Nahshon Wright, is in line to start again. Luther Burden is one of the most exciting young wide receivers in the league and is poised for a breakout in Year 2.
The biggest win was landing Caleb Williams. He took major steps under Ben Johnson and has a skill set that reminds people of Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. So in conclusion: a couple of well above-average weapons, a pillar at right tackle, a starting cornerback, and a quarterback with higher upside than Bryce Young. The Bears’ rebuild was expedited, and they enter the 2026 season already in the Super Bowl conversation.
Another reason to trade the pick is that demand at the position is massive. We’ve heard names like Derek Carr, Tyson Bagent, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, and Deshaun Watson all in the conversation for starting spots on NFL teams. I believe the haul for the No. 1 pick could be historic.
Lastly, the 2027 class looks like it may feature several signal-callers as good as—or better than—Mendoza.
A better prospect in a better situation. It’s hard to pass on a shot at a franchise guy, but it may be exactly what returns the Raiders to relevance.
